華爾街喜歡執行長談論自家的策略

Wall Street Likes It When CEOs Talk About Their Strategies
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執行長愈新,效益就愈大嗎?改編自李察.惠廷頓、巴薩克.雅基斯-道格拉斯與安光元合撰的文章。請參考本刊文章〈執行長公開談論策略,將獲得華爾街好評 〉

投資人不喜歡不確定性;研究顯示,即使在過渡期,只要談論公司的策略就能在華爾街獲得回報。一項研究檢視九百多位美國執行長公開談論策略的談話,以及股市隨後的反應。在發表談話當天,股價平均上漲超過2%,且漲幅在隨後一週內繼續升至約5%。

這並不表示每個人都表現得很好。在我們研究的公開談話中,約有四分之一引發負面觀感,導致股票下跌。但有更多公司引發正面反應,它們的股票在發布談話當天上漲4.5%,相當於平均市值增加約24億美元,而且漲幅在接下來幾天裡繼續提高至10%以上。

這項研究也仔細檢視新執行長發表的談話。負面反應大致相同,但公開談話所創造的正面反應效果,新執行長幾乎是整體樣本的三倍,是平均值的兩倍。資料顯示,愈早發表談話愈好。新任執行長愈慢公開談話,好的策略談話所產生的正面效應就愈小,不好的策略談話所造成的後果則愈嚴重。

策略談話最有效益的,似乎是來自不同產業的新任執行長。對於這類執行長,負面反應只比整體樣本稍差,但正面反應推升股價近20%,即市值增加104億美元。因此,經歷最劇烈變化的公司,似乎只要略微公開討論自家策略,就能創造最大效益。

(劉純佑譯)


Investors don't like uncertainty, and research shows that even in times of transition, just talking about your company's strategy pays off on Wall Street. One study looked at over 900 public presentations on strategy by American CEOs, and the stock market reactions that followed. The average stock value rose by just over 2% on the same day of those presentations, and continued to rise over the following week to about 5%.

This is not to say that everyone did well. Of the presentations studied, about a quarter were negatively received, those stocks dropped. More companies saw positive reactions, however, and for them stock prices rose 4.5% on presentation day – the equivalent of about 2.4 billion dollars in average market value - and continued to drift upward to more than 10% over the following days.

The study also looked closely at announcements made specifically by new CEOs. While the negative reactions remained about the same, the positive impact of public presentations was nearly three times as valuable for new CEOs as for the sample at large, doubling the average. And the data shows that sooner is better. The longer new CEOs waited, the smaller the positive effects of a good strategy presentation, and the greater the consequences of a bad one.

Presentations on strategy seem to be the most beneficial for CEOs who are both new and coming from a different industry. For this group, negative reactions were only slightly worse than for the entire sample, while positive reactions raised stock market value by almost 20%, or 10.4 billion dollars. So it seems that companies undergoing the most dramatic changes are the ones who have the most to gain from being a little more open about their strategy.



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